Etichettato: Paul Vanderbroeck

The German economy brings good tidings for Italy

di Paul Vanderbroeck*

With the snow, some other good news comes from the north. The German economy shrunk by 5 % in 2020. That’s a lot, but not as much as expected. More importantly, it’s less than during the Financial Crisis, when the German economy went down by almost 6 %. What is more, the decline was bigger in the first half than the second year. So the economy has been able to adapt to the COVID restrictions. For sure, private spending went down considerably (- 6 %). But German manufacturing plus government spending (+3.4%) has compensated for the decline in sales in retail, hotels and restaurants.

The German state ran a deficit, but that’s what the ECB and the IMF for years have been asking Merkel to do anyway.

Both imports and exports went down last year, but recently they have been picking up. German companies expect to export more in the months ahead. Interestingly, imports from Italy to Germany in November have increased by 7,2 % from November 2019 (compare imports from China: +8.2%). Unemployment has stabilized, no doubt thanks to the money the German government is pumping into the economy.

The Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK) and Commerzbank both forecast an increase in GDP between 4 and 5 %. The IMK is optimistic, it expects an economic boom to be 5 times more likely than a recession in the next three months.

That means fewer bankruptcies, more employment and less national debt. That’s good news for Italy. A growing German economy means more imports from Italy. More Germans with a job bring more German tourists to Italy. And who is paying for the Italian Recovery Fund and guaranteeing the Eurobonds?

Indeed.

 

Paul Vanderbroeck has Dutch and Swiss nationality. He is an Executive Coach and has spent a lot of time in Italy during the past four years.

Kafka in the Netherlands

di Paul Vanderbroeck*

On Friday, January 15, Mark Rutte, Prime Minister of the Netherlands, took his bike to cover the short distance between his office and the Royal Palace in the Hague to present his government’s resignation to the King. It was not the end, but an important milestone of the scandal that has rocked the Netherlands over the past years. At least 26’000 parents for years have been wrongfully accused of defrauding childcare allowances. They were forced to repay tens of thousands of Euros. It resulted in financial ruin for some families, divorces, and even some suicides.

As a first step, the government has decided to give 10’000 and possibly more than 26’000 parents an immediate cheque of € 30’000.- before May 1 (in total between 300 and 750 million €). After that, individual damage claims will be reviewed. It has been agreed that the state will pay back all financial damage plus 25 % on top.

The scandal and how it’s being handled says a lot about this country’s culture, combining Protestant ethics with pragmatism. The typical Dutch compromise in the coalition of liberal and socialist parties has been to be generous in subsidies and tough on fraud. In 2013, a special team was set up to uncover fraud after discovering that a Bulgarian network was illegally siphoning Dutch subsidies. The team thought it found many cases of fraud. Small mistakes by parents in filling out documents were considered fraudulent and heavily punished. Immigrant parents or parents with double nationality were mainly targeted. They were suspected of being more prone to fraud.

It took a few journalists and two tenacious parliamentarians many years to find out what had gone wrong. They met staunch resistance from the civil service that consistently held back information. What they uncovered was a complete malfunction of the separation of powers. The government went on a witch hunt for suspected fraudulent citizens. Parliament omitted a clause in the law that would give citizens the right to contest the state’s accusations. The High Court failed to see that the different parties were not equal before the law in this case. As a result, citizens who did seek justice were rebutted in courts biased in favour of the government. What is more, other safeguards in a democratic society failed. The “mainstream media” were more interested in politicians’ vicissitudes than injustice done to a large group of citizens. Unions, happy with the generous subsidies, looked the other way.

The reference to Franz Kafka in the title is not far-fetched. The report of the parliamentary commission that investigated the scandal, published December 2020, is entitled “Incredible injustice”. It’s content can be summarized in Kafka’s phrase from The Trial: “It belongs to the nature of this judicial system that one is condemned not only innocent but also ignorant.”. The hearings with the senior civil servants of the different ministries were telling. Well aware of what was going on, no one felt responsible for what the government as a whole was doing. No one dared to ask a critical question to a colleague in a different department. All did as was told within their own silo. There have been a few courageous whistleblowers all right. Still, they were silenced by senior civil servants and their political bosses. It gives a chilling insight into the workings of an efficient bureaucratic machine that uncritically follows career politicians’ directions. It should make us wary of what this same bureaucracy is capable of while handling the Corona crisis. For the state proves to be very tenacious. The Dutch tax authority has already announced that the citizens, who get the 30’000 €, are obliged to first use it for repaying any tax arrears…..

These events can tell us a lot about the culture of a country like the Netherlands. What I find mind-boggling is the story of the documentation. That government officials, supported by their ministers, hide information does not surprise me. What does surprise me is the information still being available somewhere in the archives. Some documents with explosive details were given to Parliament only years later. There has been ample time to make them disappear. This means that civil servants knew that they had done the wrong thing but were convinced that they were essentially doing the right thing, namely following orders. Or perhaps that their sense of duty towards documenting the bureaucracy was stronger than the fear of being found out.

It’s no coincidence that this Dutch scandal is around subsidies. Every culture has its deadly sins. In the UK, politicians resign when they are involved in a sex scandal. In Italy, when there is corruption. In Germany, where education and science are highly valued, it happens when a politician has committed plagiarism to obtain a doctorate, the mother of all German diplomas. In the frugal Netherlands, it’s getting money you don’t deserve. If you look at why ministers, mayors or members of Parliament had to leave over the past years, it has most of the time to do with expense fraud. So that is why the Dutch government put so much effort into finding people who have unfairly received subsidies.

Will the scandal have political consequences, particularly as national elections are due March 17? On his right, Rutte, who will again stand for office, could face competition from right-wing populist parties. After all, this scandal proves the populist point that the separation of powers does not really exist, because the civil service, politicians and judges are all part of the same educated elite. Or that the establishment cooperates to hold the average citizen down. On the other hand, the scandal is of little use to the populists, since it disproportionally touched the immigrant population. That’s not their constituency after all. Many parties on his left have at some point been part of one of Rutte’s coalition governments in the past ten years. They therefore share in the responsibility for the scandal. Difficult to use this in the election campaign.

That brings us to the pragmatic reason for the fall of Rutte’s cabinet. It’s first about protestant guilt and penance: Falsely accusing someone of committing a deadly sin is as least as bad as committing the sin itself. Second, it’s also convenient because the elections were planned for March 17 anyway. A caretaker government frees the leaders of the various parties in the government, Rutte first of all, to start disagreeing among each other as part of the election campaign. Third, Rutte has pragmatically agreed with Parliament, that there will be no discontinuity in managing the Corona crisis until a new government has been formed. Finally, now that the cabinet has taken the blame, the discussion on who bears what responsibility in the scandal will subside.

Perhaps Italy should be thankful to Giuseppe Conte for having opposed Dutch control on spending the Recovery Fund. It could have become nasty.

 

* Paul Vanderbroeck has Dutch and Swiss nationality. He is an Executive Coach and has spent a lot of time in Italy during the past four years.

European Support: four options for Italy

di Paul Vanderbroeck*

“EU support without conditions, otherwise we’ll do it ourselves,” said Italian Prime Minister Conte recently to Italy’s European partners. For the third time in just over 100 years, Italy is once again facing the challenge to lift itself up from the abyss. The first two times after a war, now a pandemic.

The country has four choices. The first two are the two options Conte referred to: going solo, which would mean leaving the Eurozone or perhaps an Italexit; or European financial support with economic conditions, i.e. committing to socio-economic reforms.

The latter is clearly the preferred option of the Netherlands and other northern European countries. The third option concerns Chinese financial support with political conditions, i.e. commitment to supporting China’s political agenda in Europe and the world. This is a realistic option. The Italian port of Trieste is already part of China’s new Silk Road. China is missing no opportunity to support directly Italy in the Corona crisis.

The fourth and final option, direct loans for Corona related medical care and unemployment payments, will be discussed in the Euro Summit on April 23. Conte’s preferred option, namely financial support for economic reconstruction without conditions, seems to have been finally taken off the agenda after the recent agreement of the European finance ministers.

The first time when Italy was exhausted and on its knees, in 1918, the country decided to go solo under the leadership of Mussolini. The country was frustrated at the lack of support it received from the Allies after Italy helped them win WWI. Ultimately, the country entered a negative political and economic spiral, which ended in 1945 when Italy was again broke. Then the country opted for financial aid (Marshall Plan) on (American) political terms: keeping the Communists outside the government.

A period of economic growth and prosperity followed. But it also had a price tag. Blocking the Communists from power only succeeded at the expense of huge concessions to the trade union movement. As a result, Italy for quite some time has been facing an inflexible labour market and low productivity. The economy is kept going by relocating production abroad, temporary employment contracts, a significant black labour market as well as by running up government debt. It has prevented Italy from regaining economic growth after the financial crisis of 2008.

It is in the interest of the northern European countries and Italy to continue negotiating after the Euro Summit, so that besides immediate emergency aid, financial aid for economic reconstruction is also released. But on condition that Italy accepts socio-economic reforms.

The prosperity of all countries in the EU depends on a large and well-functioning internal market of economically strong countries. Italexit or a greater influence of China is economically damaging both to Italy and Europe in the longer term. It would greatly weaken the EU and reduce the stature of Italy in the world.

In both cases – as some Italian intellectuals and politicians rightly point out –, it will also fall prey to the Mafia. We don’t want a narco-state in Southern Europe, now do we?

*Dr Paul Vanderbroeck (Geneva) has Dutch and Swiss nationality. Is Executive Coach and has largely spent a lot of time in in Italy in the past four years, where he has been teaching at LUISS Business School.

Dutch version

How the Northern European countries can get Italy to reform. Three recommendations

Oggi TheWalkingDebt ospita un contributo esterno, inaugurando così una pratica che speriamo diventi consuetudine. Confrontarsi, in un momento in cui le difficoltà sembrano insormontabili, è (dovrebbe essere) il viatico per chiunque cerchi soluzioni praticabili. E anche guardarci con gli occhi degli altri fa parte di questo tirocinio. 

Grazie, dunque, a Paul Vanderbroeck*, che ci consegna queste sue riflessioni.

In the Greek crisis, we have seen that a top-down approach with a Troijka can secure loans, but it cannot really get a country back on its feet. Nor has the previous laissez-faire approach yielded a positive result. To reform Italy, European partners must both give direction and set boundaries as well as motivate the country and its people to cooperate.

First, we must become aware of the deeper cultural differences. Northern Europe has an objective culture: the public interest overrides the individual interest, i.e. rules are rules. Italy has a subjective culture: the personal interest overrides the public interest, i.e. rules are flexible. Both have their good and bad sides. In a subjective culture, everyone thinks it’s okay to double park in the absence of a parking space, because you have to buy bread after all. It is something that personally annoys me tremendously in Italy. On the other hand, a scandal like that of the childcare allowances in the Netherlands would be impossible in Italy. In the Netherlands, the tax authorities recently admitted that thousands of parents for years were wrongfully accused of defrauding childcare allowances. They were forced to repay tens of thousands of Euros. It resulted in financial ruin for some families, divorces, and even some suicides. In the Netherlands, civil servants have a blind faith in rules and therefore can cause personal hardship. An Italian official will always have an eye for personal interests and individual differences.
Therefore: present the Italians rules in such a way that there is room to bend the rules and apply them differently. This increases the chance of acceptance and thus of repayment of loans.

Secondly, an approach that focuses on “do like you” and not “do like us”. There are a number of organizations in Italy that are doing very well. Italy can be helped to spread these best practices and a successful organizational culture across the country. Three examples: The various car sharing options function very efficiently in the larger cities. The speed, frequency and reliability of high-speed trains are unparalleled within Europe. The Carabinieri, despite a bad apple in its time, are extremely successful in fighting organized crime and terrorism. In addition, Italians can be very productive. This can be seen in how they deal with the Corona crisis. But you can observe it every day. McDonalds delivers fast, Starbucks (to a certain extent) delivers good quality. Go to an Italian bar during rush hour: it serves fast and good coffee. This all has to do with organizational culture, which is based on pride for the delivered product, people-to-people contact and a motivation for service.

The third recommendation is to motivate political counterparts to reform. It is difficult for the current Italian government to be self-critical. There are a number of issues for which the EU is not to blame, but which aggravate the Corona crisis in Italy. Under the guise of urgency and national unity, no one mentions them. Many excellent and desperately needed Italian doctors, nurses and scientists have emigrated. This is largely the result of a rigid system in Italy, which withholds opportunities from talented individuals. Or what about those millions of workers in the black economy of southern Italy, who are now without income and will be receiving support from the state treasury without ever having paid a Euro in tax or social contributions? However, it is quite likely that the government will be paying the price for this at the next election.

For the previous government, consisting of newcomers Lega and 5-Stelle, is was easier to admit that there are some things wrong in Italy. They could claim with some justification that they had inherited a mess from their establishment predecessors. The current coalition now includes the Partito Democratico, Italy’s last remaining establishment party. It is difficult for this party to own up to past failures. The lever that Europe has is to convince the current coalition that if they want to stay in power, reforms are inevitable.

Northern Europe can get Italy to reform with conditions that allow for subjective application, an action plan that leverages the strengths of Italian organizational culture, and a deal that takes into account the personal interests of the coalition government.

By helping Italy make more use of its strengths, it can recover, so that the rest of Europe can retain a strong economic partner. And so that the northern part of the continent can continue to learn from Italy: from its creativity, its culture and how you can have fun without a lot of alcohol.

Dr. Paul Vanderbroeck has Dutch and Swiss nationality. He is an Executive Coach and has spent a lot of time in Italy during the past four years.